I was considering the market action we witnessed Thursday and Friday. All risk assets falling on Thursday, while stocks stabilized on Friday. There was no stabilization in gold or silver, however, as these “storehouses of value” were virtually in freefall.
Why would stocks stabilize and the ultimate flight-to-quality assets fall just 2 days after overwhelmingly negative global economic news hit the press?
In poetry, there is a phrase “deus ex machina.” Basically, it is a way for a poet to bail his story line out by having some outside force resolve a seemingly unsolvable problem. On Thursday, G20 ministers met in an attempt to come up with a coordinated solution to the worsening global crisis. Could it be that, sometime this weekend, a Hail Mary pass will be announced by the G20 — with all the accompanying shock and awe?
That would help explain Friday’s stability in stocks. Who would want to be short the market if “god is out of the machine” while the markets are closed? Who would want to be long gold over the weekend with the possibility of a massive rescue package being announced?
I guess will find out soon enough if a big announcement will be made. But, in a way, it’s largely beside the point. To me, it sure seems like the markets weren’t willing to take that chance.